7% - A
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These "7%" pages strive to prove the last number of 7% to relief doubts of it - from the equation seen at the end of Proba C. The pages go a step farther by finding a number with higher precision. It fits the needs of anyone who wishes for a more understandable number with a detailed explanation. It looks lengthy and wordy, but the Number 1-3 sections are pretty easy to understand, and there's much spacing in between.
First view quickly this slight lesson.
pineapples
To start, there is 1 likely event.
The 'likely' event happens, before the 'unlikely' event can happen.
If the likely event doesn't happen, the unlikely event shouldn't happen either.
Here's an example.
A young man named Urkenbloc and a young woman named Noomerate have the same family, and live in the same neighborhood. A vast forest of trees holding plentiful pineapples is distant by 20 miles.
Urkenbloc has a vehicle, but Noomerate does not. Daily Urkenbloc drives his car and Noomerate rides along as they leave for work and school. In every nice morning they will stop at the forest to eat pineapples.
We discover, Urkenbloc is 90% likely to consume pineapples each day.
We find, Noomerate is only 6% likely to consume pineapples each day. She instead likes strawberries.
For most days they make the trip, where colorful heaps in clusters of pineapples grow on thousands of trees, as well as with other fruits.
Some days they must skip the trip.
Whether Noomerate eats pineapples or not is completely dependent on whether Urkenbloc drives to the forest area or not.
We may consider only Urkenbloc by his percents.
The consequence thus is, where the percent is high on any day Urkenbloc eats pineapples, and only then can Noomerate also eat them on that day. When the percent is non-existent, it reveals that Urkenbloc didn't eat pineapples on that day, and we conclude that Noomerate won't eat them on that day either - they didn't make the drive to the forest.
The percent of Urkenbloc usually determines the percent of Noomerate.
This is the basic idea for sections: Number 1-3.
Number 1
For the model of a likely event, I'm choosing the understandable occurrence of car accidents.
I'll give 1 standard example. You can use my percent, but I suggest to try yours when able.
As a driver, I'm average yet pretty safe. I have about 1 car accident every 8 years (mostly small or minor bumps to the bumper).
*Using Illustration 1:
1 (accident) / 8 (years) = .125 = 12.5% = 13%
Driving frequently, there's a 13% chance I will get in 1 accident during 1 whole year.
Perhaps to find the percent of a more average driver, I'll raise the percent to 15%.
You may pause to create the percent from your own experience here...
(Or for ease, you may use my percent.)
Please keep this number. This car accident percent is a 'likely' event, we can use later.
Number 2
Give attention to your main source of witnessing people in events:
school, work, friends, public, magazine, TV news, internet news, DVD movies, etc.
Ponder again car collisions. Have you ever witnessed a car collision from any source, then a few weeks later have a car collision yourself? It's a peculiar question, but you'll see later it's value.
(This counts the lives of ordinary people. This also excludes individuals who deals with cars in a daily to monthly period as his/her job or hobby.)
In my lifetime, I haven't yet witnessed a car collision, then get into one weeks after.
By may case, you could say it's 0% or near 0 that it could happen.
If I were to make some guess of it actually occurring to a group of our society, I would say the approximate number is:
1 out of every 60 people.
Guessing in these terms, how would you guess it?
Let's build a more likely event, that's away from 0%. To make an event more likely to happen, I'll be lenient, generous, or safe with the numbers. Let's cut down the group number which creates a higher percent than 0%:
1 out of every 20 people,
will get into a car accident in a couple of weeks after seeing it, from normal aged adults.
(Soon or in the final steps, you'll understand this.)
*Using Illustration 1:
1 person / 20 people = .05 = 5%
Of all adults 5% will likely meet a car accident only weeks after seeing it. We're being generous, or the percent would be near nonexistent - at 0%.
Please pause to create your own number here...
You may hold this number.
2 numbers we have now are:
15%, and 5%
This number seems right because if natural car collisions occur at 15%, then the percent of unnatural car accidents must be lower. It is, at 5%.
The actual percent from true facts should lie between 5% to 0%. "5%" represents itself, and any percentage below itself.
Number 3
For the last number, I ask another but like question:
What probability is it, when someone you closely know gets into a car accident, then a few months passes when you encounter a car accident with you directly involved?
There's 2 differences here than from the question of section Number 2.
In comparison, here since we're decreasing people but increasing the length of time, it would seem the percents of Number 3 could even out and be near the same amount as Number 2.
Since Number 2 was a very lenient and ample percent for its situation, we can use this same ample amount to meet the prerequisites of this equation also:
= 5%.
It's 5%, though to make it a more likely event and safer, it's permissible to raise the percent to 10%.
My concept of safe, is like bringing 15 extra baseballs to a baseball game you're participating.
More than that, why I do this will be better understood in the third page.
If your making a custom number, please use the same number you made in Number 2, then round up to the nearest number ending with 0 or 5 ...
You may hold the 3 numbers (either my numbers or custom) until the last page.
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-- Feb 27, 2022, 11:20pm PST
~ Update: 2/28, 11:50am
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