INTRO
Proba C - Proba Extended
The last equation in Proba B considers all or most people.
To specifically consider an exclusive group of people -- individuals who meet great pressures --
we change 2 parts of the equation.
In the Proba A > Fact List > #B it says: 20% of Clucky, get Sandals.
Here we add the element of "pressure".
From the equation, you see the slot we'll use -- the second number from the right, the 20%:
.10 x .009 x .46 x . 20 x .05
(20% = .20)
The new equation we want to build, uses this 20% slot.
We will admit pressure increases the chances of getting the Sandals condition, although scientists are still studying this aspect and don't know for certain any real data to show.
We'll hypothesize to use the highest but reasonable amount of pressure = 95%.
Hence, from high pressure for a person who will surely get the Sandals illness, we will increase the number from 20% to 95%.
95% = .95
The updated equation with the new element of pressure included, is:
.10 x .009 x .46 x .95 x .05
Here is part of the new equation, but it's not complete.
This equation says: For everyone who got Clucky and is under 50 years of age, they will surely get Sandals.
Of course, this is not true. Everyone mentioned will not surely get Sandals. To give attention to the exclusive group we're targeting who have great life 'pressures', we represent it by another number.
Modern science doesn't have clear data about pressures related to Sandals publicly available, although they do have much data from similar groups.
Data suggests people with extraordinary pressure, are classed with other extreme conditions or statuses such as HIV, cancer, bodily trauma, steroids, biological toxins, and being older than age 60 or 65 who have greater susceptibility. To calculate all the groups around 'pressure' that it's classed with, can give us a good approximation.
Before, I did the calculations I casually guessed it would be about 4%. Because it seems natural to me, the world would consist of 90-94% of normal people, and 5% to 8% we would consider as extreme. Furthermore, to identify a 'specific' type of extreme group, the percent would be even less.
From primary categories of HIV, cancer, steroids, and persons above age 60, I used data from a period (within some years from today), and I had done a few calculations. I combined these 4 groups to get a mean number of 3%. We'll use 3% as an approximate percentage which represents these groups of people, that are most susceptible to develop the Sandals disease.
Please, remember 3%.
Explanation of Equation
We recently had altered the equation to add the element of 'pressure', with 95% in the right-ish slot:
.10 x .009 x .46 x . 95 x .05
In Prep Notes, you'll find there is a hidden 100%.
We'll add it now:
.10 x .009 x .46 x . 95 x .05 x 1.00
(From right to left.)
The first percent means: We start with 100% people.
The second percent means: 5% will get Clucky, OF 100% people.
The third percent means: 95% will surely get Sandals, OF 5% people who got Clucky.
(This statement will be true after the next section.)
The fourth percent means: 46% are ages 50 and under, OF the 95% people who get Sandals.
The fifth percent means: Less than 1% people will develop the Syndrome, OF either 44% or 95% people who got Sandals.
(It doesn't matter which of the 2 we multiply 0.9% to.)
The sixth percent means: 10% (or less) is a personal estimate about the likeliness the very rare Syndrome could happen after 2 other rare conditions happened in only 3 months and 3 weeks time, OF less than 1% people who get the Syndrome - counting from people who got Sandals.
(Some added info about the sixth placed percent (.10) is in this last section.
New "7%" papers have been added at the end - as "extra credit" content.)
Now, you can follow what the numbers are and know how to read them to comprehend the entire equation.
Starting Amount
Please, recall 3%. 3% represents the extraordinary pressure group. How do we insert the 3%?
From 100% people, we want to exclusively target this specific group of people.
We write it like so:
3% OF 100%
=
.03 x 1.00
This means: From 100% people, 3% are the extraordinary pressure group.
The updated equation is:
.10 x .009 x .46 x . 95 x .05 x .03 x 1.00
At present, the 'extreme group' has been added into the equation.
New Equation
In Proba B, the last consideration is "fits". I began with a very safe number of 10%. (.10 as the last number in order on the left side.)
10% represents 3 rare medical conditions that happened together in 3 months and 3 weeks time - which by now, you may see how very rare the medical condition of the Syndrome is, which is included in the 3. At the end of Proba B, to be more accurate I changed it to 5%. Personally, because I feel it's unlikely, I believe it's well under 5%. For this equation, I'll count it as 7% as a very adequate estimate. At the equation's beginning (left), we next change the 10% to 7%.
(Again, this is further illustrated in the "7%" extra papers.)
We have the complete new equation:
.07 x .009 x .46 x .95 x .05 x .03 x 1.00 x 4.3 million
Finally we'll calculate it:
.07 x .009 x .46 x .95 x .05 x .03 x 1.00
x 4.3 million = 1.78 = 1 person
Now we can make the statement:
A)
Of those who get the Syndrome in this situation, from all North American births he is the only single person who got it.
I think that's funny.
B) Or:
Of those who get the Syndrome in this situation, from all North American births he is exactly the only one person who got it.
C) Or:
Of everyone who get the Syndrome in this situation, from all North American births he is nearly the zero people who get it.
You might want to look at a world map, preferably a physical globe, to see how big the continent of North America is.
In this case, the chances of getting the Syndrome are very slim, even exceedingly rare.
If he says he has the Syndrome, it could likely not be true.
For using time to read and see it from a different view, thank you.
________________________
-- Dec 6, 2022, 3pm PST
~ Update: June 25, 2023 | March 3, 2023, 10am- added info of "7%" papers | October 7, 2022
|