Proba A
Percentage
We'll begin, by making the percentage to calculate those who will get the "Syndrome". The result is an actual number.
Fact List:
A) 15% of people get the Clucky disease.
B) 20% of Clucky, get Sandals
C) For ages 50 and under, only half of them get the Syndrome
D) Less than 1% of people who get Sandals, get the Syndrome
E) The Vampiric Vaccine is at least 5% more effective when dealing with severe Vampiric disease
(= Syndrome).
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A) 15% of people first get Clucky. We'll combine "A" and "E" together. Which means it's 5% less from 15%. The percentage is: 10%
B) After you get Clucky, the Zap Virus hides itself and is dormant in the body for years. Following years or decades, the sleeping Virus may reactivate, to cause Sandals. The percentage is: 20%
C) Mostly Sandals happens in the elderly after the age above 50 or 60. However in the U.S., only half Sandals happen below 50. To be safe, we'll use this number. The percentage is: 50%
D) From Sandals, a minute few people develop the Syndrome".
Here's a quote: "Less than 1% of SANDAL cases involve the FACE and result in THE SYNDROME." (Note: Words in all CAPS, I replaced.)
The percentage is: Less than 1%, or (we'll guess) 0.9%
E) "E" is added to "A"
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Here is a brief course in Math:
(click to open)
We calculate A-E (backwards).
0.9% of 50% of 20% of 10% is:
.009 x .50 x .20 x .10 = .00009 = %0.009
The Guesstimate = %0.009
(A & C above are in the U.S. and counted yearly. A and C is dependant on the other letters.)
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We can confirm the Guesstimate by another fact:
* 5 in every 100,000 people every year get the Syndrome in the U.S.
(click to open)
Here we "cross multiply" and divide. To make equal sides, "c" must equal 215.
How to Cross Multiply:
(click to open)
A) To answer the question in Math pic 2, letter C, the number "215" is true for this equation but not true for this question.
Although the answer is wrong for the question, we can still use it to make the percent. Any number that is not 0, and is an easy postive number can be used for the equation to get a usable answer.
B) "Births" is a way to get a specific year and a well rounded portion of people. To get the "complete population" of North America instead, numbers fluctuate - births, deaths, leaving or entering North America.
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The last step is, what we learned in the first Math lesson.
What is the percentage of 215 (people) from 4.3 million (people)?
215 / 4,300,000 = .00005
Actual: 0.00005 = 0.005%
My Guesstimate (above): 0.009%
The Guesstimate percentage was off by %0.004, but it's very close to the Actual percentage.
** The comparison verifies well enough the Guesstimate equation's accuracy. Also, this Guestimate equation can be further enhanced to use as the basic means to make the actual calculation, about how many people would eventually be affected by the Syndrome.
To use mainly U.S. information creates the "Actual" percentage to further use for primarily U.S. data. This info and the percentage made isn't sufficient for our goal. To calculate the Syndrome for a specific previous year and for another country - besides the U.S. -- rather, we will reform the Guesstimate number string towards a well-rounded equation. Furthermore, by using global data which is well suited to better tailor a universal equation, we can then soon answer our prime question.
To start the modifying process, in Guesstimate's basic equation, we change only "A" and "C" - to make the percentage more general, overall, or universal.
A = 90% worldwide vaccine efficiency (90 + 5 = 95%; 100 - 95 = 5%). This neighbor country is likely to have about the maximum of U.S. efficiency at 95% (With added 5% of "E".); Consider some countries establish ahead of the U.S. a vaccine (immunization) program.
C = More likely to happen above age 50 or 60.
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Overall or universally, we'll permit "A" at 5%. "C" could be approx. 46% globally. More than half of people over 50 develop it. Half is 50%. 'More than half', would have the minumum of about 54%. 100 - 54 = 46%. If he's under 50, he's 46% or less likely to get it. We insert these 2 numbers into the basic equation:
.009 x .46 x .20 x .05 = .0000414
Finally, we can use the North American "birth" info number more appropriately (from the Math pic 2 letter C):
.0000414 x 4.3 million = 178.02
Of 4.3 million , 178 got the Syndrome in North America.
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-- Nov 2, 2022, 5pm PDT
~ Update: June 25, 2023 | Dec 6, 2022 - changes found between 2 pairs of asterisks | Nov 26, 2022 - changes seen in color
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